Remember back in 2019, when Gerrit Cole signed that ridiculous $324 million contract with the Yankees? I was sitting at a bar with my buddy, and he just shook his head, muttering, “No pitcher is worth that, especially not one who’s been average in big moments.” We watched a replay of Cole striking out the side with that filthy slider, and I couldn’t help but wonder: Is this guy actually on a path to Cooperstown?
Fast forward to today, and that question feels a lot less ridiculous, doesn’t it? Cole has become the ace the Yankees paid for, winning a Cy Young and dominating for years. But here’s the thing: being a Hall of Famer isn’t just about the numbers—it’s about the feeling you leave behind.
The Case For: Flash, Stats, and That One Season
Let’s start with the obvious: the raw stuff is elite. Cole has a career ERA+ hovering around 130, meaning he’s been 30% better than a league-average pitcher over his entire career. That’s Hall of Fame territory, folks.
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And don’t forget his 2019 season with the Astros, where he posted a 2.50 ERA and struck out 326 batters. That year alone put him in the conversation as one of the most dominant pitchers of his generation. He was basically a human cheat code that summer.
But then there’s the postseason. Look, I know you’ve seen the memes—Cole’s October numbers are a mixed bag. He’s got a 3.59 ERA in the playoffs, which is good, not great, and he’s had some meltdowns (looking at you, 2022 ALCS). But is that enough to keep him out of the Hall? Not if you ask voters who love peak performance.
The Comparing Game: Who’s He Like?
Compare Cole to Justin Verlander at the same age. Verlander was already a Hall of Famer by 34, but Cole’s peripherals—strikeout rate, walk rate—are actually better than Verlander’s at that point. That’s a spicy take, but the numbers don’t lie.
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What about Max Scherzer? Same deal. Scherzer had a late peak, but Cole’s consistency from 2018 onward is eerily similar. If Scherzer is a first-ballot guy, Cole is at least on the same tier right now.
Of course, the elephant in the room is the steroid era. Cole doesn’t have that stink on him, but he also doesn’t have the gaudy 300-win totals of the past. Hall voters love milestones, and Cole is still chasing that 3,000 strikeout club.
The Case Against: Longevity and That One Dark Cloud
Here’s the honest part: Cole is 34, and he’s already had some elbow scares. He missed time in 2024 with elbow inflammation, and that’s a red flag for a guy who relies on velocity. If he breaks down in the next two years, his case gets wobbly.
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Even his biggest fans have to admit: his Hall of Fame resume is thin on counting stats. He’s “only” got about 2,500 career strikeouts and 150 wins (as of mid-2025). The Hall has started to value peak over longevity, but those old-school voters still love the big round numbers.
And let’s not ignore the elephant in the room: the Astros sign-stealing scandal. Cole benefited from knowing what pitches were coming in 2017 and 2018. Does that cheapen his stats? Some writers will hold that against him, even though he didn’t cheat personally.
The Vibes Check: Is He “Hall of Fame” Right Now?
If you asked me this morning, I’d say he’s a borderline case—like a Mike Mussina type. Mussina took eight years to get in, and his resume is eerily similar: great peak, good playoffs, no title.
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But here’s the twist: Cole has that swagger. He walks around like he owns the mound, and that counts for something in the Hall. Voters love a guy who looks like a superstar.
Also, he’s got a Cy Young and three top-five finishes. That’s a stronger award case than many recent inductees. For example, David Cone has five top-six Cy finishes but no titles—and he’s not in the Hall.
The Verdict: My Two Cents
I’ll be honest with you: I think Cole is a yes—but barely. If he pitches for another four or five seasons at an above-average level, he’s a lock. But if he starts to fade now, he’ll be one of those guys who lingers on the ballot for a decade.
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You know who he reminds me of? Curt Schilling. Great numbers, postseason heroics, but controversial baggage. Schilling eventually didn’t get in because of his off-field stuff. Cole doesn’t have that problem, but the Astros shadow is real.
So final answer? I’m voting him in, but I’ll hold my nose a little. He’s not a first-ballot guy, but he’s better than 90% of the pitchers who have ever lived. And if you ask me again in five years, I’ll probably say he’s a slam dunk—assuming those elbow ligaments hold up.
Now go argue with your friend about this. You’re welcome.